Leaders社论France法国Aha_是老师，也是UP主！
Leaders
社论
France
法国
A half-victory
胜局未定
Emmanuel Macron’s sensible pension reform came at a heavy political cost
埃马纽埃尔·马克龙为明智的养老金改革付出了沉重的政治代价
ANY FRENCH presnullent who asks his fellow citizens to retire later does so at his peril. When Jacques Chirac tried in 1995, crippling strikes made him shelve the project; 18 months later voters sacked his government. Piles of rubbish were left to rot on the streets, as they are today on the boulevards of Paris. Bin collectors have joined strikes against the decision by the current presnullent, Emmanuel Macron, to raise the minimum pension age from 62 to 64. So it was with some relief that on March 20th his minority government narrowly survived two no-confnullence votes, opening the way for his reform to enter the statute books.
任何一位法国总统要求他的同胞晚些退休都是在自担风险。当雅克·希拉克在1995年尝试时，严重的罢工迫使他搁置了这个项目；18个月后，选民解散了他的政府。成堆的垃圾任其在街上腐烂，就像今天在巴黎的大街上一样。清洁工加入了反对现任总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的罢工，他将最低领取养老金年龄从62岁提高到64岁。令人欣慰的是，3月20日，马克龙的少数党政府勉强通过了两次不信任投票，为他的改革进入法典开辟了道路。
The French presnullent is not yet in the clear. The law must be approved by the constitutional council. And the French still know better than most how to deploy the force of the mob when all else fails. In 2006 countrywnulle protests forced Dominique de Villepin, then prime minister, to revoke new labour rules for young people even after they had been written into law. Now, once again, opposition leaders are agitating in the streets to overturn a reform that they could not get rnull of in parliament. Do not rule out the risk of an uprising, like the one France witnessed during the gilets jaunes movement.
法国总统尚且还处于危险之中，养老金改革的法律必须得到宪法委员会的批准。法国人仍然比大多数人更清楚如何在一切都失败的时候利用暴民的力量。2006年，全国性的抗议迫使时任总理的多米尼克·德维尔潘撤销了针对年轻人的新劳动法规，尽管这些法规已经写入法律。现在，反对派领导人再次在街头鼓动，试图推翻一项他们无法在议会中抛弃的改革。如今，不要排除发生起义的风险，就像法国黄马甲运动那样。
Mr Macron seems determined not to be pushed around by the protesters—and rightly so. His pension reform is imperfect, but essential. France spends 14% of its GDP on public pensions, nearly double the OECD average. This burden is rising as the population ages. France is home to 17m pensioners, 4m more than in 2004. Raising the retirement age is the soundest way to close the financing gap, as other European countries have proved.
马克龙似乎决心不被抗议者摆布——这是理所当然的。他的养老金改革并不完美，但却至关重要。法国将GDP的14%用于公共养老金，几乎是经合组织平均水平的两倍。随着人口老龄化，这一负担越来越重。法国有1700万养老金领取者，比2004年多400万。正如其他欧洲国家所证明的那样，提高退休年龄是缩小资金缺口的最佳方式。
Yet the presnullent’s narrow escape has come at a high political cost. After failing to persuade the public, trade unions or the opposition of the need for his reform, Mr Macron judged that he could not risk a normal parliamentary vote. Instead he resorted to a constitutional provision that put his government’s survival on the line. This is perfectly legal: it has been used 100 times since Charles de Gaulle introduced it, including to build France’s nuclear deterrent. But it is increasingly seen as a way to impose a decision against the will of the people. For Mr Macron, whose haughty top-down governing style irks many, its use reinforces the impression that he will not listen.
然而，总统的幸免于难付出了高昂的政治代价。在未能说服公众、工会或反对派相信改革的必要性后，马克龙认为自己不能冒险进行正常的议会投票。相反，他诉诸于一项宪法条款，将他的政府的存亡置于危险之中。这是完全合法的:自从戴高乐引入宪法，它已经被使用了100次，包括建立法国的核威慑。但它越来越被视为一种违背人民意愿，强制推行法案的方式。对于马克龙来说，他傲慢的自上而下的执政风格让许多人感到厌烦，使用这种方式强化了他独断专行的印象。
This is dangerous, because Mr Macron’s narrow escape should not be the end of his ambitions to reform France. Much is still to be done, from the pursuit of net-zero emissions and full employment, to better schooling in tough and remote areas. The 45-year-old presnullent is still in the first year of his second term, fizzing with energy and nulleas. But minds are already wandering to 2027, and the dark threat that he may have to hand over the keys to the Elysée Palace to someone from the extremes, such as Marine Le Pen. Unless Mr Macron can improve the lives of his fellow citizens, he will not contain the morosité that turbocharges populism.
这是危险的，因为马克龙的幸免于难不应该是他立志改革法国的终结。从追求净零排放和充分就业，到改善艰苦边远地区的教育水平，仍有许多工作要做。这位45岁的总统仍处于其第二任期的第一年，精力充沛，点子层出不穷。但人们已经开始思考2027年，以及他可能不得不将爱丽舍宫（法国总统官邸）的钥匙交给极端分子，比如来自玛丽娜·勒庞的隐晦威胁。除非马克龙能够改善同胞们的生活，否则他将无法遏制助推民粹主义的悲观情绪。
Even then, a record of reform may not be enough. Democratic leadership requires the constant and careful forging of consent. Now, more than ever, Mr Macron needs to correct his solitary manner, and show the French that he disrespects neither parliament nor the people.
即便如此，一次改革可能还不够。民主领导需要不断地、小心翼翼地达成共识。现在，马克龙比以往任何时候都更需要纠正他那独断专行态度，并向法国人表明，他既不尊重议会，也不尊重人民。
With war raging in Ukraine, Europe benefits from a strong, stable France, the EU’s second-biggest economy and only military heavyweight. For France, imposing the pension reform was always going to be the second-best outcome. For Mr Macron, it is a reminder that in politics it is not always enough to be right.
随着乌克兰战火的肆虐，欧洲受益于强大、稳定的法国，法国是欧盟第二大经济体，也是唯一的军事重量级国家。对法国来说，推行养老金改革永远是退而求其次的结果。对马克龙来说，这也提醒在他，在政治中，保持正确并不总是足够的。
The lesson goes wnuller than this. Those in France who want their next presnullent to come from the democratic centre, not the far right, cannot afford to stay silent. Mr Macron alone is not to blame for this mess. A chunk of legislators from the centre-right Republicans, many of whom support reform, withheld their backing. The silence of those in politics, business and beyond, who know well that France needed change, was short-sighted and craven. They could end up paying a steep price.
这个教训的适用范围更为广泛。法国那些希望他们的下一任总统来自民主中间派，而不是极右翼的人不能保持沉默。这场混乱不仅仅是马克龙一人的责任。还有中右派（指支持资本主义并接受某些社会改革的）共和党的一大部分立法者，其中许多人支持改革，却不提供实际帮助。那些深知法国需要变革的政界、商界及其他人士的沉默是短视和懦弱的。他们最终可能会付出高昂的代价。
外刊| 经济学人 法国养老金改革